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02/02/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not only does Bob Baffert have the favorite in this Saturday's Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, but the silver-haired trainer also has what could be the future Kentucky Derby champion entered in the Grade II event.
Liaison comes into the 1 1/16-mile race as the morning-line choice after taking care of business in the CashCall Futurity this past December. The son of Indian Charlie has won his last three starts, including a pair of stakes races at Hollywood Park.
This will be Liaison's second career start on true dirt. His first was a 2 3/4-length maiden win over seven-furlongs at Santa Anita. Following that effort Baffert threw him into the Real Quiet Stakes around two turns and Liaison responded with a half-length score over Rousing Sermon.
The time was a mediocre 1:44 3/5 but the field of six 'walked' through the race going a half in 48 4/5 and the first six-furlongs in 1:13 3/5 seconds. Liaison was never more than two-lengths off the lead until he took command into the stretch while easily holding off Rousing Sermon at the wire.
Liaison was close to the pace in his next start (the CashCall Futurity) as well, but through much quicker fractions of 46 4/5 and 1:11. In addition, instead of having to go three-wide, as was the case in the Real Quiet, he sat on the rail saving all the ground until the field turned into the stretch.
Liaison once again held off the late charge from Rousing Sermon to win by a neck.
The final eighth-of-a-mile was a cavalry charge as 10 horses were within four lengths of each other. In fact, the seventh-placed horse wound up losing by less than three-lengths.
What was most impressive about Liaison's race in the CashCall was how he was able to withstand the rigorous early pace while racing in the fourth spot to win the Grade I event. To that end, the horses that were first, second, third, fifth, and sixth after the first half-mile finished seventh, ninth, 10th, 11th, and eighth, respectively.
Baffert's other runner, Sky Kingdom, is primed for a huge effort in the 1 1/16-mile event despite a pedigree suited for nine and 10-furlongs. After finishing a decent fourth in the CashCall, he won what might have been the most impressive three-year-old allowance race in California this year. In addition, his latest workout - five-furlongs in 58 2/5 - shows he is in top form to turn the tables on his stablemate.
Since Sky Kingdom has only banked $60,000 in graded earnings, a victory in the Robert B. Lewis is critical in gaining enough money to be eligible to race in the Kentucky Derby, especially when he might only make one more start - the Santa Anita Derby - before going on to Churchill Downs.
A longshot to keep in mind in the Robert B. Lewis is I'll Have Another. The son of Flower Alley is a little bit behind the rest of the field since his last race was back in September. Nevertheless, he's bred to run all day and Doug O'Neill has worked him extensively over six and seven-furlongs in recent weeks.
OTHER GRADED SATURDAY STAKES (FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS)
The Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct should be another easy victory for Alpha. The son of Bernardini, who won the Count Fleet earlier in the meet, will be odds-on to take his second straight stakes event over the inner dirt.
Like Sky Kingdom, Alpha needs graded earnings as he holds the same $60,000 under his belt. However, it should be easier for him to garner sufficient earnings as he continues to face lackluster horses in New York.
The Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs has been owned by Todd Pletcher in recent years as his horses have won four of the last six meetings. He is expected to enter Ecabroni off the colt's seven-furlong maiden win on Jan. 14 at Gulfstream Park, a race the son of Smoke Glacken won by two-lengths. More impressive was the gap of almost eight-lengths back to the horse in third.
Other Sam F. Davis contenders are State of Play, Reveron, Neck N Neck, and Prospective.
(Spring Hill Farm, Pletcher's other three-year-old winner the day Ecabroni broke his maiden, is scheduled to run the following weekend in the Hutcheson Stakes against Ever So Lucky and Thunder Moccasin.)
HANSEN SUFFERS HIS FIRST DEFEAT
Hansen, the two-year-old champion, was the 4-5 favorite in the Holy Bull last Saturday at Gulfstream Park, but the gray son of Tapit was not up to the challenge as Algorithms cruised to an easy five-length score.
After stumbling slightly out of the gate, Hansen built a 4 1/2-length lead after a 45 3/5 first half-mile. Unfortunately, he backed up through the stretch finishing with a 26 4/5 final quarter-mile. The Gulfstream track was sloppy so that might have had something to do with his performance. Still, it is obvious he is not a 10-furlong type of horse.
On the other hand, Algorithms looked the part of a stakes winner, claiming $240,000 of graded earnings. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt should have two more races prior to Kentucky, both of which will be around two turns.
Another one of Pletcher's three-year-olds won Saturday's seventh race, an entry level allowance/optional claimer. El Padrino took care of business by two lengths over Take Charge Indy, with a gap of 13 3/4-lengths back to Argentine Tango in third.
El Padrino came into the allowance event off a third-place finish in the Remsen Stakes last November, a race he did not look all that impressive until the final yards. Moreover, his lone two lifetime wins have come on off tracks so the jury is still out on the son of Pulpit.
Take Charge Indy ran well in defeat despite moving to the lead way too early in the race. It was his first appearance since a fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and his first on a wet surface so he could improve in his next outing. On the other hand, all he has done in his career is win a maiden race, so don't look for him to suddenly jump up and win a major Kentucky Derby prep.
The two biggest disappointments on the day were Consortium and Casual Trick. The former ran last in the Holy Bull, while the latter finished next-to-last as the favorite in the race won by El Padrino.
The weekend's top three-year-old performance came from a filly.
Broadway's Alibi, trained by Todd Pletcher, won the Forward Gal Stakes by 16 3/4-lengths while running the seven-furlongs in a brisk 1:21 4/5 seconds. To put that in perspective, Algorithms needed 1:23 to get past Hansen one race later on the card.
The filly is by Vindication out of a Seeking the Gold mare, named Broadway Gold, who is a half-sister to Dialed In. Broadway's Alibi has now won her last three races by a combined 28 3/4-lengths.
THE JEFF FRANK 'DIRTY DOZEN'
1) Sky Kingdom - Needs a good showing on Saturday to remain in the top spot; 2) Union Rags - Must maintain a straight course through the stretch this spring; 3) Algorithms - His first two-turn race will answer more questions; 4) Gemologist - Pletcher will run him just twice before the Kentucky Derby; 5) Discreet Dancer - If the Derby was a mile, he would be alone at the top of this list; 6) Alpha - Could have an unbeaten three-year-old campaign prior to the first Saturday in May; 7) Liaison - Derby distance might be a problem; 8) Out of Bounds - Same might hold true for this son of Discreet Cat; 9) Creative Cause - Will make his three-year-old debut later this month; 10) El Padrino - Pletcher's fourth horse in the top 10 moves up if it rains on Derby day; 11) Hansen - Must rebound in his next start or he is off the list; 12) Sabercat - Hasn't worked since early December.
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Billy Donovan's G
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
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